耦合长期预报的跨流域引水受水水库调度模型          下载免费PDF全文

卢迪  周如瑞  周惠成  彭勇 《水科学进展》2016,27(3):458-466

为提高跨流域引水工程受水水库引水有效性,研究了耦合长期径流预报信息的跨流域引水受水水库调度模型。首先选取汛期径流预报信息,采用径流预报概率修正先验概率来描述径流的不确定性,建立了贝叶斯随机动态规划模型(BSDP-LTF)。然后将模型应用于碧流河水库,并与仅考虑径流相关的随机动态规划模型(SDP-I)、仅考虑长期预报信息的随机动态规划模型(SDP-LTF)进行比较。比较结果得出在供水保证率基本一致且不增加调度风险的情况下,BSDP-LTF模型相比SDP-I、SDP-LTF模型,可分别减少引水8.2%、4.1%。表明贝叶斯随机动态规划模型BSDP-LTF有效改进了径流描述,提高了跨流域引水的有效性。  相似文献   

京津冀地区中α尺度飑线过程中大风特征分析及成因初探     

吴紫煜  姚雯  李超 《气象与环境科学》2016,39(2):90-98

应用常规天气观测资料、地面加密自动气象站资料、大风灾情报资料、京津冀地区7部多普勒天气雷达组网观测资料及VDRAS资料,从多个角度对2013年8月4日京津冀地区一次飑线过程产生的大范围大风天气过程进行了分析,结果显示:此次过程是在高空冷空气南下、低层暖湿气流北上、系统前倾及位势不稳定的有利层结条件下,由多单体风暴演变为中α尺度的强飑线所致。飑线形成于低层垂直切变加强、冷池合并之后;大风主要发生在飑线主体回波中,其次是主体回波前和中前,主体回波后很少发生。大风发生的位置取决于飑线结构中气流的性质,气流的性质与冷池前进的程度和对流的强度关系密切。大风大部分由下沉冷气流产生,少数为近地面上升暖气流导致。大风发生的范围和强度与低层风垂直切变的强度呈正比,大范围低层风垂直切变的加强增强了飑线入流和出流的强度,是大范围大风、局部强风形成的重要原因。大风发生站次与冷池的强度和范围密切相关,冷池的加强和范围的扩大加强了后侧冷入流和前侧暖入流的强度和范围,也是大范围大风形成的重要因素。  相似文献   

A Chandra observation of the X-ray environment and jet of 3C 296     

M. J. Hardcastle  D. M. Worrall  M. Birkinshaw  R. A. Laing  A. H. Bridle 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,358(3):843-850

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X-shaped radio galaxies as observational evidence for the interaction of supermassive binary black holes and accretion disc at parsec scale     

F. K. Liu 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,347(4):1357-1369

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A Chandra X-ray survey of nearby dwarf starburst galaxies – II. Starburst properties and outflows     

Jürgen Ott †  Fabian Walter  Elias Brinks † 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,358(4):1453-1471

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A Unified Model for Black Hole X-Ray Binary Jets?     

Rob Fender  Tomaso Belloni  Elena Gallo 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,300(1-3):1-13

We have recently put forward a ‘unified’ semi-empirical model for the coupling between accretion and jet production in galactic black hole X-ray binaries. In this paper, we summarise this model and briefly discuss relevant considerations that have arisen since its publication.  相似文献   

The depolarization properties of powerful extragalactic radio sources as a function of cosmic epoch     

J. A. Goodlet  C. R. Kaiser 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,359(4):1456-1468

We use the observed polarization properties of a sample of 26 powerful radio galaxies and radio-loud quasars to constrain the conditions in the Faraday screens local to the sources. We adopt the cosmological redshift, low-frequency radio luminosity and physical size of the large-scale radio structures as our 'fundamental' parameters. We find no correlation of the radio spectral index with any of the fundamental parameters. The observed rotation measure is also independent of these parameters, suggesting that most of the Faraday rotation occurs in the Galactic foreground. The difference between the rotation measures of the two lobes of an individual source, as well as the dispersion of the rotation measure, shows significant correlations with the source redshift, but not with the radio luminosity or source size. This is evidence that the small-scale structure observed in the rotation measure is caused by a Faraday screen local to the sources. The observed asymmetries between the lobes of our sources show no significant trends with each other or other source properties. Finally, we show that the commonly used model for the depolarization of synchrotron radio emission by foreground Faraday screens is inconsistent with our observations. We apply alternative models to our data and show that they require a strong increase of the dispersion of the rotation measure inside the Faraday screens with cosmological redshift. Correcting our observations with these models for redshift effects, we find a strong correlation of the depolarization measure with redshift and a significantly weaker correlation with radio luminosity. We do not find any (anti-)correlation of depolarization measure with source size. All our results are consistent with a decrease in the order of the magnetic field structure of the Faraday screen local to the sources for increasing cosmological redshift.  相似文献   

X-ray synchrotron emission from the oblique shock in the jet of the powerful radio galaxy 3C 346     

D. M. Worrall  M. Birkinshaw 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,360(3):926-934

We report the first detection, with Chandra , of X-ray emission from the jet of the powerful narrow-line radio galaxy 3C 346. X-rays are detected from the bright radio and optical knot at which the jet apparently bends by approximately 70°. The Chandra observation also reveals a bright galaxy-scale atmosphere within the previously known cluster and provides a good X-ray spectrum for the bright core of 3C 346. The X-ray emission from the knot is synchrotron radiation, as seen in lower-power sources. In common with these sources, there is evidence of morphological differences between the radio/optical and X-ray structures, and the spectrum is inconsistent with a one-component continuous-injection model. We suggest that the X-ray-bright knot is associated with a strong oblique shock in a moderately relativistic, light jet, at ∼ 20° to the line of sight, and that this shock is caused by the jet interacting with the wake in the cluster medium behind the companion galaxy of 3C 346. The general jet curvature can result from pressure gradients in the cluster atmosphere.  相似文献   

The klein–nishina Effects in Blazar Jets     

R. Moderski  M. Sikora 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,297(1-4):369-376

Blazars are the only (with one or two exceptions) extragalactic objects which were detected and identified at gamma-ray energies so far. It is suspected that most of the unidentified gamma-ray sources may be the blazars as well. Because the entire electromagnetic spectrum of these objects is dominated by non-thermal radiation from relativistically moving jets, the effects such as the Klein–Nishina regime in the Compton scattering may play a major role in shaping some parts of the blazar spectrum. Within the framework of external radiation Compton model, we present how these effect influence the spectra of blazars for which the production of gamma rays is dominated by Comptonization of external radiation.  相似文献   

Opening angles, Lorentz factors and confinement of X-ray binary jets     

J. C. A. Miller-Jones  R. P. Fender  E. Nakar 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,367(4):1432-1440

We present a collation of the available data on the opening angles of jets in X-ray binaries, which in most cases are small (≲10°). Under the assumption of no confinement, we calculate the Lorentz factors required to produce such small opening angles via the transverse relativistic Doppler effect. The derived Lorentz factors, which are in most cases lower limits, are found to be large, with a mean >10, comparable to those estimated for active galactic nuclei (AGN) and much higher than the commonly assumed values for X-ray binaries of 2–5. Jet power constraints do not, in most cases, rule out such high Lorentz factors. The upper limits on the opening angles show no evidence for smaller Lorentz factors in the steady jets of Cygnus X-1 and GRS 1915+105. In those sources in which deceleration has been observed (notably  XTE J1550−564  and Cygnus X-3), some confinement of the jets must be occurring, and we briefly discuss possible confinement mechanisms. It is however possible that all the jets could be confined, in which case the requirement for high bulk Lorentz factors can be relaxed.  相似文献